DBS forecasts China real GDP growth to average 3 per cent a year to 2040
DBS, Singapore's largest bank, forecasts China's real GDP will average 3 per cent annual growth from 2026 to 2040. The bank says an ageing population and property downturn will be offset by AI and robotics, while advanced manufacturing and improved corporate governance should support market expansio
DBS, Singapore's biggest bank by assets, on Tuesday forecast that China's real gross domestic product will average 3 per cent annual growth from 2026 to 2040. The bank said the growth will be driven by the opposing forces of an ageing population and property downturn amid an era of artificial intelligence and robotics.
The bank noted that China is entering a new phase of growth and capital market development, shifting from scale-driven expansion towards productivity, innovation and capital efficiency, where growth is becoming more selective. Improvements in corporate governance, capital allocation and investor participation should strengthen the transmission from economic growth to shareholder returns, DBS said.
As China's economy matures and transitions towards a moderately developed economy, its securitisation rate — measured by market capitalisation as a percentage of GDP — is expected to converge with those of other major markets, reaching 96 per cent by 2040. The bank said sustained earnings growth, higher return on equity supported by improved corporate governance, supportive policies, and consistent inflows from multiple investor groups should support further market expansion.
Advanced manufacturing will underpin China's quality growth and supply-chain self-reliance, with robotics and automation, and precision components among the key areas of focus, the bank said.