February 3, 2009
China’s economic downturn has cost the jobs of 20 million rural migrants, prompting a call from the Communist Party’s security chief for efforts to calm possible unrest.
Anxiety among the leadership about trouble was underscored at a meeting of the party Central Military Commission, which issued an order for complete obedience from the People’s Liberation Army in the face of multiple security threats.
China’s most senior official on agricultural policy also revealed that 15.3 per cent of the 130 million migrants moving from farms and villages to cities and factories - about one in seven - had returned to the countryside jobless.
With some six to seven million new entrants expected to join the rural labour market this year, more than 25 million people could find themselves without a job. That is more than the entire 21 million population of Australia and does not include the untold millions of urban unemployed - a number Beijing does not release. The new total for the number of migrant workers who have lost their jobs is double an estimate given just over a month ago by an official magazine.
Chen Xiwen did not underplay the extent of the problem facing the party. “There’s a considerable number of rural migrants who are unemployed. After they return to villages, what about their incomes? How will they live? That’s a new factor concerning social stability this year.”
He said that the challenge for the government was to try to create work or provide subsidies to those who fail to find jobs or whose land has been appropriated for development. “Protecting employment and protecting people’s welfare is protecting rural social stability,” Mr Chen said.
Another worry for the authorities are figures showing that the growth of farmers' incomes continues to lag behind the growth of those of city dwellers, threatening to fuel anger among people who feel left behind by China’s economic boom.
Zhou Shouheng lives in a dirt-poor village in central Henan province, China’s most populous and the source of the highest number of migrant workers. He is one of the lucky ones. “Everyone in my village works for a successful boss in Beijing and we will all go back after the Chinese New Year holiday to jobs in his construction business. I guess many others will have to travel to different cities and it may take longer for them to find work.”
Economists warn that even the 4-trillion-yuan (£400 billion) fiscal stimulus package unveiled in November to boost growth may not be enough to provide jobs for all. After all, China has a rural population of 750 million, many of whom rely on migrant relatives working in coastal or urban factories to send home money to supplement the family income.
The authorities are taking no chances. The party’s security chief warned that maintaining economic growth was essential to ensure social stability. Zhou Yongkang said :”The economy is connected to people’s livelihood, affects every family and is the basis of social stability and harmony. “
Hundreds, if not thousands, of “mass incidents” or outbursts of discontent shake China every day with most too small or too local ever to be reported in the media. The official number soared to 87,000 - big and small - in 2005 but fell the following year. Since then the police have not released statistics. However, state-run media have reported taxi driver strikes, protests by laid-off workers who did not receive their salaries and sporadic rioting in recent weeks as export-driven growth has slowed and companies have shed staff.
The security chief told officials that it was their responsibility to prevent unrest by swiftly resolving disputes over unpaid wages or bankruptcies. “Limit as much as possible the potential for mass incidents, try as hard as possible to solve problems at the grassroots and nip them in the bud and try as hard as possible to solve problems when and where they happen in the first instance.”
Diplomats said they did not expect any unrest to pose a serious threat to the authorities. One said: “We are not talking here about the collapse of party rule.” But a labour expert said that the government was aware of the potential for unhappy workers to stir up trouble on the streets.
Geoffrey Crothall of the Hong Kong-based China Labour Bulletin said workers were now moving further afield from the hard-hit Pearl River Delta in the south where many export factories are concentrated. “The government recognises that there is potentially a very serious problem and they are pulling out all the stops. It is important that laid-off workers receive the proper payments in accordance with the law. If not, then the things the government most fears are more likely to come true.”
The leadership is determined to do its utmost to avoid unrest, eager to show China in the best possible light in a year when it will celebrate the 60th anniversary of Communist Party rule. They do not want to see a repeat of the student-led demonstrations in the spring of 1989 that ended when the army marched into Tiananmen Square on June 3-4.