Hong Kong GDP growth revised up to 4.8% for 2026 on strong Q3 trade
Hong Kong's economy expanded 5.2% in Q3 2026, driven by AI-related exports and robust domestic demand. The government revised its full-year GDP growth forecast upward to 4.8%, while trimming its 2026 inflation forecast to 1.9-2.0%.
The Hong Kong government on 13 November 2026 revised its full-year 2026 real GDP growth forecast upward to 4.8 per cent, from a previous range of 3.5 to 4.5 per cent, following stronger-than-expected economic performance in the third quarter. Government Economist Vanora Wong announced that real GDP expanded 5.2 per cent year-on-year in the July-to-September period, accelerating from 4.2 per cent in the previous quarter. For the first three quarters combined, real GDP grew 5.1 per cent, the fastest pace for the period in five years.
The Q3 expansion was driven by a 30.3 per cent year-on-year real increase in total goods exports, up from 28.9 per cent in Q2, reflecting robust global demand for AI-related electronic products. Service exports grew 4.3 per cent year-on-year, with growth across all major service categories including transport, tourism, financial and business services.
Domestic demand remained solid. Private consumption expenditure rose 2.9 per cent year-on-year in real terms in Q3, marking the sixth consecutive quarter of expansion. Overall investment spending increased 7.5 per cent year-on-year, led by a 11.6 per cent rise in private-sector investment, which recorded double-digit growth for the fourth straight quarter.
The labour market remained broadly stable. The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate edged up to 3.9 per cent in Q3 as the labour force grew faster than total employment, partly due to new graduates and school leavers entering the market. Median monthly employment income rose 3.1 per cent year-on-year in nominal terms.
In asset markets, the Hang Seng Index closed Q3 at 24,613 points, up 7.6 per cent from end-June, outperforming major indices in other markets. Residential property prices remained broadly stable during the quarter, with transaction volumes close to the five-year average.
Looking ahead, the government noted that global AI investment and related trade continue to support Hong Kong's economic growth in the fourth quarter. However, it warned of external uncertainties including potential Middle East geopolitical tensions, trade frictions, rising sovereign bond yields in advanced economies, and possible market corrections from overly optimistic AI expectations.
On inflation, the government revised its 2026 forecasts downward, citing slower-than-expected pass-through of international oil prices and the impact of earlier fuel subsidies. The forecast for underlying consumer price inflation was cut to 1.9 per cent from 2.5 per cent, and headline CPI inflation to 2.0 per cent from 2.6 per cent.
