China's protein export boom reshapes global meat trade
China's protein exporters are flooding global markets with cheap chicken, pork and dairy, reshaping trade and drawing scrutiny from Western rivals. Subsidised overcapacity and shifting diets at home are pushing firms overseas, while European regulators have opened probes into some products.
Chinese protein producers are expanding aggressively overseas, leveraging lower costs and new capacity to challenge established exporters from Brazil, Thailand and Europe, according to industry executives and trade data.
Wintop Food, which processes 60 million chickens a year in Shandong province, is among those riding the wave. General manager Dang Yangyang said international clients who once distrusted Chinese quality now buy because Chinese chicken is $1,000 cheaper per ton than Brazilian and Thai competitors. Exports accounted for half of Wintop's profits last year and are funding a 33-acre expansion.
The surge is drawing scrutiny from Western regulators. In July, the European Commission opened an anti-dumping probe into Peking duck imports, and last month imposed anti-dumping duties of 41 to 67 per cent on Chinese pea protein. A commission spokesperson said European authorities are monitoring the chicken market. China exported $2.6 billion worth of chicken products last year, nearly double 2020 levels, customs data show. Dairy exports are on track to hit $600 million this year, doubling in three years.
The trend is already reshaping global trade. China has doubled its share of the EU processed-poultry market to 10 per cent since 2022 and tripled its share in the UK to more than 14 per cent, according to Gira, a food consultancy. Chinese milk powder is competing with New Zealand and European products in Nigeria and Bangladesh, and displacing Indian and Iranian producers in the Middle East, said Yifan Li, dairy analyst at StoneX. “It’s very worrying,” said Kukrit Arepagorn, manager at the Thai Broiler Processing Exporters Association. “Customers increasingly use cheap Chinese chicken prices as a reference point for negotiation.” Ezequiel Pires, chairman of Lisbon-based trader Branexx, said his company began buying Chinese poultry in March after African customers sought cheaper alternatives to Brazilian imports. Chinese breast meat and leg quarters are 10 per cent to 20 per cent cheaper than Brazilian products, he said. Chinese producers have doubled their share of the EU processed-poultry market to 10 per cent since 2022 and tripled their share in the UK to more than 14 per cent, according to Gira, a food consultancy. The shift is “disruptive” for the global meat market, said Michael Boddington, a Beijing-based agribusiness consultant. “Every Chinese livestock company is planning to expand overseas. If you want to grow, you must go abroad,” said Zhang Yuan, head of baby formula marketing at Yili, which plans to start selling formula in Southeast Asia as soon as next year. The 2008 melamine scandal had turned consumers away from domestic milk for more than a decade, but Yili baby milk powder is now the top-selling brand in China. Feihe launched its AceKid infant formula in Indonesia in April and in the Philippines a year earlier. Wintop’s Dang said: “International clients used to distrust the quality. But when the meat is $1,000 cheaper per ton than Brazilian and Thai competitors, they have to either buy from China or lose out.” The European Commission imposed anti-dumping duties of between 41 per cent and 67 per cent on Chinese pea protein last month, and launched a probe into Peking duck imports in July. A commission spokesperson told Reuters European authorities are monitoring the chicken market. China’s agriculture and commerce ministries didn’t respond to questions. The OECD says subsidies accounted for about 13 per cent of Chinese agricultural producers' gross farm receipts between 2022 and 2024, nearly triple the level in the early 2000s. China exported $2.6 billion worth of chicken products last year, almost double 2020 levels, customs data show. Dairy exports are on track to hit $600 million this year, doubling in three years. China’s per-capita pork consumption has fallen 13 per cent since peaking in 2023. Chicken intake rose more than 50 per cent per capita in the decade through 2024. Pork production hit a record 59 million metric tons last year; poultry output rose 7 per cent. Chinese milk powder now competes with products from New Zealand and Europe in countries including Nigeria and Bangladesh, and is displacing Indian and Iranian producers in the Middle East, according to Yifan Li, dairy analyst at commodity broker StoneX. China has doubled its share of the EU processed-poultry market to 10 per cent since 2022 and tripled its share in the UK to more than 14 per cent, according to Gira. “It’s very worrying,” said Kukrit Arepagorn, manager at the Thai Broiler Processing Exporters Association, an industry body. “Customers increasingly use cheap Chinese chicken prices as a reference point for negotiation.” Ezequiel Pires, chairman of Lisbon-based international meat trader Branexx, said his company began buying Chinese poultry in March after African customers sought cheaper alternatives to Brazilian imports. Chinese breast meat and leg quarters are 10% to 20% cheaper than Brazilian, Pires said. Zhang Yuan, head of baby formula marketing at Yili, said: “Every Chinese livestock company is planning to expand overseas. If you want to grow, you must go abroad.” Dang Yangyang, Wintop general manager, said: “International clients used to distrust the quality. But when the meat is $1,000 cheaper per ton than Brazilian and Thai competitors, they have to either buy from China or lose out.” Michael Boddington, Beijing-based agribusiness consultant, said China's shift from buyer to emerging exporter is having a “disruptive” effect on the global meat market. Kukrit Arepagorn, manager at the Thai Broiler Processing Exporters Association, said: “It’s very worrying. Customers increasingly use cheap Chinese chicken prices as a reference point for negotiation.” Ezequiel Pires, chairman of Lisbon-based international meat trader Branexx, said his company began buying Chinese poultry in March after African customers sought cheaper alternatives to Brazilian imports. Yifan Li, dairy analyst at StoneX, said Chinese milk powder now competes in Nigeria, Bangladesh and the Middle East. Zhang Yuan, head of baby formula marketing at dairy giant Yili, said: “Every Chinese livestock company is planning to expand overseas. If you want to grow, you must go abroad.” Pig farmer Huang Weiying, 57, said: “I have been raising pigs for over two decades, but it has never been as hard as the last two years. Pig prices are so low. People in the cities just stopped eating pork.” Dang Yangyang, Wintop Food general manager, said: “International clients used to distrust the quality. But when the meat is $1,000 cheaper per ton than Brazilian and Thai competitors, they have to either buy from China or lose out.