China full-year growth forecast around 4.5 per cent, analyst says
Analysts expect China's third-quarter GDP to grow 4.4 per cent, with Dah Sing's chief economist projecting 4.3 per cent amid a two-speed economy. Full-year growth is forecast at about 4.5 per cent, with policy adjustments expected.
China's third-quarter economic data will be released on Monday, with a Reuters poll of多家机构 predicting a median GDP growth of 4.4 per cent, slightly faster than the 4.3 per cent recorded in the second quarter.
Wan Kai-wai, chief economist and strategist at Dah Sing Financial Group, said the mainland continues to show a "two-speed economy", where foreign trade remains robust but domestic consumption and investment face downward pressure. The offsetting effects leave limited room for faster growth, and he expects third-quarter growth to stay at 4.3 per cent.
Wan noted that both central and local governments are under fiscal strain, with infrastructure spending likely to see little change in the third quarter. Real estate investment remains weak, and manufacturing continues to grapple with overcapacity, so fixed-asset investment in the first nine months may not rebound significantly.
The fifth plenary session of the 20th Central Committee is scheduled for this month, and markets anticipate new stimulus measures in the fourth quarter. Wan said that with major overseas economies in a rate-hike cycle, the People's Bank of China has limited room to adjust monetary policy to avoid large capital outflows. However, a recent State Council executive meeting mentioned enhancing the effectiveness of existing policies, and Wan believes Beijing will make targeted adjustments to specific measures to strengthen their impact.
He estimates that China's full-year economic growth could be maintained at around 4.5 per cent, with attention focused on improvements in domestic demand and whether exports can sustain their strong performance.