China car sales forecast to rise 2% in 2027 after 2026 slump
China's domestic passenger vehicle sales are expected to fall to 18.5 million in 2026 before rising 2 per cent in 2027, according to a senior industry executive. The recovery is attributed to easing cost pressures and improved product offerings.
China's domestic passenger vehicle market is set to stage a modest recovery in 2027 after a steeper-than-expected downturn this year, according to a senior industry executive.
Domestic car sales are forecast to fall to 18.5 million vehicles in 2026, down from 23.7 million in 2025, before rebounding by a median 2 per cent in 2027, Cui Dongshu, secretary-general of the China Passenger Car Association, said on Monday.
Behind the recovery will be the fading of short-term headwinds, easing cost pressure and improved product offerings, though competition is likely to become increasingly polarised, Cui said.
The executive did not provide a specific sales forecast for 2027, instead giving a median estimate for the expected rebound. The figures represent the association's assessment of the domestic passenger vehicle market's trajectory.
China's car market has faced significant headwinds in 2026, with the decline from 2025 levels representing a drop of more than 5 million vehicles. The projected recovery in 2027, while modest, signals an expected stabilisation of market conditions.