HKU forecasts 3.7% Q3 GDP growth, sees 2.8% in Q4
Hong Kong University projects the city's real economy grew 3.7 per cent year-on-year in the third quarter, slowing from Q2, with fourth-quarter growth easing to 2.8 per cent. Full-year growth is forecast at 4.1 per cent, revised up 0.4 percentage points.
The University of Hong Kong (HKU) estimates the city's real economy grew 3.7 per cent year-on-year in the third quarter, slowing 0.6 percentage points from the second quarter amid weak consumer confidence. Rising visitor arrivals continued to support tourism-related service exports, while goods imports and exports grew at a similar pace to the second quarter, at nearly 30 per cent.
Total investment growth accelerated to 10 per cent, while private consumption spending growth eased to 2 per cent. The unemployment rate edged up to 3.8 per cent, and inflation fell back to 1.7 per cent.
The government will release advance estimates of third-quarter economic growth on the third of next month.
HKU's Hong Kong Economy and Business Strategy Research Institute and the Asia-Pacific Economic Co-operation research project issued high-frequency macroeconomic forecasts, projecting fourth-quarter growth to slow to 2.8 per cent year-on-year, down 0.9 percentage points quarter-on-quarter, marking the smallest expansion in eight quarters. Apart from a higher comparison base, trade protectionism, Middle East tensions and uncertainty over interest rate trends are expected to weaken external trade momentum towards the end of the year.
For the full year, HKU forecasts economic growth of 4.1 per cent, up 0.4 percentage points from its previous estimate, mainly reflecting better-than-expected external trade performance in the first half of the year.